A Joint Model for Water Scarcity Evaluation

To make a real difference for our thirsty planet, we establish the water demand-supply model and the Advanced Water Poverty Index (AWPI). First, we develop a dynamic demand-supply model to measure the ability of a region to satisfy its water consumption. On the demand side, we fit agricultural and industrial water needs by the Grey Verhulst prediction model, then we consider domestic needs through the Logistic Growth model of total population and the Regression model of residential needs per capita. On the supply side, we estimate the impacts of multiple factors such as utilized internal river and rainfall, desalinated seawater and purified sewage. In the experiments, we use the sensor data from the World Bank. Also, the stability of our model has been proved by the evaluation. Second, we analyze the types of water scarcity by improving the Water Poverty Index to the Advanced Water Poverty Index, and we creatively add population as the sixth key component. The prediction can be used as an important indicator for the government to take some specific intervention measures to help alleviate the severe water shortage and achieve sustainable development of water resources.